پيش بيني تحليلگران غربي در مورد قيمت روي در بازارهاي جهاني

شروع موضوع توسط سهند ‏6 آگوست 2004 در انجمن تالار گفتمان بورس

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    تاریخ عضویت:
    ‏17 جولای 2004
    ارسال ها:
    3,871
    تشکر شده:
    95
    Second-half outlook: Market factors drive base metals prices forward
    Tom Stundza, Executive Editor
    Purchasing August 2, 2004
    ...High-grade zinc price forecasts offered in the closing months of 2003 placed the LME cash average for 2004 at an average 47¢/lb, a dime more than in 2003. However, LME near-term zinc has averaged 48¢ so far this year as futures prices actually firmed early, reaching fresh three-and-a-half-year highs in early March. Investor sentiment toward zinc has improved gradually this year, as have the metal’s underlying fundamentals. With evidence mounting of a larger-than-expected supply shortfall for this year, earlier conservative forecasts have been modestly scaled up. With positive demand forecasts, a slower new-supply response, and less Chinese metal available to the West in 2004, slab zinc prices are expected to average 49¢ for the year.
     
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    تاریخ عضویت:
    ‏17 جولای 2004
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    چند مطلب ديگر

    Zinc consumption has grown dramatically over the past 30 years and continues to increase and new uses for zinc are being developed. Zinc fuel cells are under development for generating electricity and could create significant new demand.
    METALLINE MINING COMPANY, COPYRIGHT 1999-2004


    London Metal Exchange zinc prices tumbled sharply in 2000/01, falling from around $1,200 a tonne to just under $750 in late 2001. Prices remained depressed until recently when increased investor interest in commodities, combined with projections of future supply deficits combined to lift the metal to a 2-1/2-year high at $993 a tonne earlier this week.

    "The dollar price of zinc has been increasing. However, the rise in the euro price (of zinc) has been mitigated by the strength of the euro," he told investors.

    While dollar-priced zinc has soared by 30 percent since prices began to rise in late April 2003, euro prices have risen by 17 percent.

    Ross was optimistic about the fundamentals of the zinc market going forward as the extended period of historically low prices over the past few years meant there had been little base metals mining exploration over the past 10 years.

    Double-digit demand growth for zinc since 1990 in Asian markets was expected to continue through to 2010, he added.

    Mining consultants Brook Hunt have forecast LME cash zinc prices at $904 a tonne in 2004, rising to $1,124 a tonne in 2005.Arcon shares, listed on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) were quoted at 3.25 pence ($0.06) on Friday, unchanged from the previous day.
     
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    تاریخ عضویت:
    ‏17 جولای 2004
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    پيش بيني افزايش 50 درصدي در قيمت روي طي 3 سال آينده

    (MB) - Zinc to peak at 68 cents per lb in 2008
    2004-05-14 17:00 (New York)
    Warsaw, May 10 (Metal Bulletin) - Zinc prices are predicted to
    peak at 68 cents per lb in 2008 compared with a current average
    of around 50 cents per lb, said analyst Paul Smith of Brook
    Hunt at Metal Bulletin's 8th Zinc & its Markets Seminar in
    Warsaw, Poland.

    "There is fundamental support for a sustained price increase.
    Consumption growth will increase by an annual rate of 2.9
    percent between 2004 and 2018," Smith said.

    He forecast an average zinc price of 59 cents per lb between
    2004-2015 and said this will be sufficient to bring the

    market's required mine capacity on stream.
     
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    تاریخ عضویت:
    ‏17 جولای 2004
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    3,871
    تشکر شده:
    95
    overall for principal zinc markets, is expected in the remain- der of the forecast period with zinc prices ranging from US$1150 to $1250/t through to 2005